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Section 3 Future Without Project Conditions

EAA Storage Reservoirs Revised Draft PIR and EIS February 2006

3-1

3.0 FUTURE WITHOUT PROJECT CONDITIONS

3.1 FORECAST OF FUTURE CONDITIONS

This section describes the most likely condition of the physical, biological, and

human environments in the EAA and other affected areas in the year 2050 if the

EAA Storage Reservoirs project is not constructed. The planning period from

present-day through the year 2050 is used for analysis and forecasting the

future “without project” and “with project” conditions, and for considering the

impacts of alternative plans. It is the period of time necessary to analyze

project/plan impacts.

The future without project condition describes what is assumed to be in place if

none of a study's alternative plans are implemented. The without-project

condition is the same as the “no action” alternative required by the Federal

regulations implementing the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969

(NEPA). The future without condition forecast provides a description of

anticipated actions external to the project and the anticipated consequences of

these actions.

Future with project conditions describe the anticipated effects attributable to the

implementation of each alternative plan that is being considered in this study.

With project conditions are developed for each alternative plan; therefore, there

are as many with project conditions, as there are alternative plans.

The differences between the “without project” condition and the “with project”

condition are the effects or impacts of the plan.

In forecasting the future, consideration is given to discernable trends in

conditions, impacts of known future projects and programs, and available

forecasts of basic driving forces such as population growth.

Within the EAA, it is anticipated that Compartment A in the “without project”

condition would remain in State ownership and would continue in agricultural

and open space uses. Compartments B and C will be used in SFWMD’s

expansion of Everglades Construction Project STAs 2 and 5/6, respectively. In

the larger Study Area, land use would not change dramatically from existing

conditions. The areas around the Cities of Belle Glade, Pahokee, and South Bay

would receive almost all the population growth while the remainder of the EAA

would remain in agricultural and conservation uses through the year 2050.

As noted in the existing conditions, the organic soils of the EAA have been

decomposing due to the introduction of oxygen into the upper layers. There is

also direct loss of some soil with crops such as sod production. This subsidence

of the land is a major trend that will control much of the future of the EAA. It is

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